Aviation Week forecasts $3.3 trillion military aircraft market over next decade

Aviation Week released its 2027 Military Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, projecting a $3.3 trillion military aircraft market through 2036. The outlook points to rapid growth in uncrewed systems, more than $1.8 trillion in maintenance demand and 23,466 new aircraft deliveries.

Why it matters: - Aviation Week’s 10-year outlook shows military aviation is being reshaped by uncrewed systems, higher defense spending and shifting mission needs. - The forecast points to major demand for new aircraft and maintenance services across the global military fleet. - The report is intended to help defense and aerospace companies plan for market size, fleet mix and aftermarket demand.

What happened: - Aviation Week released its 2027 Military Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, a 10-year outlook for the military aviation market. - The forecast is based on independent projections from Aviation Week forecasting teams and data from the Aviation Week Intelligence Network. - Aviation Week says the military aircraft market will be worth $3.3 trillion over the next decade. - The company also released its 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast and Helicopter Fleet & MRO Forecast.

The details: - The worldwide military aviation fleet is projected to grow from 57,141 aircraft at the end of 2027 to 65,930 by 2036. - That implies a 1.5% compound annual growth rate over the decade. - Uncrewed aircraft are expected to grow at a 12.0% CAGR. - Crewed aircraft are expected to grow at a 0.7% CAGR. - Aviation Week expects 23,466 new-build military aircraft deliveries between 2027 and 2036. - The four fastest-growing mission segments by fleet size are CCA, ISR-Strike, C4ISR and maritime. - Growth in those segments is being driven primarily by uncrewed fleets. - Military aircraft deliveries are expected to total $1.48 trillion over the next decade. - Global military aircraft fleets are expected to generate more than $1.8 trillion in MRO demand over 10 years. - MRO demand is projected to grow at a 2.3% CAGR. - Aviation Week’s forecast combines fleet counts, projected fleet changes, utilization projections from in-house flight data and segmented MRO cost analytics. - The forecast also factors in economic and macro trends affecting global fleets and maintenance demand.

Between the lines: - Craig Caffrey, Aviation Week’s director of defense data, said the market is seeing a major shift as unmanned systems spread faster than crewed aircraft. - Aviation Week said uncrewed aircraft made up 2% of the total fleet in 2016, about 4.6% today and more than 12% by the end of 2036. - The forecast suggests defense procurement and aftermarket spending will increasingly follow the growth of unmanned platforms. - The release signals that military aviation planning is becoming more centered on autonomy, ISR and multi-domain mission demand.

What's next: - Aviation Week is directing customers to more information on the fleet forecasts for subscriptions and additional details. - The release lists Anne McMahon as the contact for forecast inquiries. - Aviation Week and Informa Markets will continue to position the forecast as a planning tool for aerospace and defense decision-makers.

The bottom line: - The next decade of military aviation looks driven by uncrewed growth, heavier maintenance demand and a much larger global fleet.